VNDA - A Case Study in Persistence-Aware Alpha
How ConvexityIQ™ Classified VNDA as Carry Before a +15% Repricing December 2025
Executive Summary
In early December 2025, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VNDA) was identified by the ConvexityIQ™ engine as a Carry-regime underlying at approximately $6.23. At the time, VNDA did not present as an urgent momentum opportunity. Price action was constructive but contained, and the advance appeared incremental rather than explosive.
From a structural convexity perspective, however, VNDA already exhibited the defining characteristics of persistent convexity: extended α-Half-Life, maximum Convexity Quotient, and multi-window ROI reinforcement. What followed was not a regime transition or volatility event, but the orderly monetization of convexity that had already survived time and decay.
As of the most recent observation, VNDA trades near $7.16, representing an advance of roughly +15% from the level at which ConvexityIQ™ had already classified the structure as fully qualified Carry.
This case reinforces a core ConvexityIQ™ principle:
Alpha is not defined by immediacy.
It is defined by persistence.
The Market’s View vs. the Structural Reality
Conventional Interpretation
From a traditional technical or momentum-based lens, VNDA’s setup in early December could be interpreted as:
A developing uptrend with intermittent consolidation
Improving but uneven follow-through
A “working trade” rather than an urgent opportunity
There was no obvious breakout imperative and no requirement that price resolve immediately.
Convexity-Persistence Interpretation
From a ConvexityIQ™ perspective, the same conditions reflected something more important:
Convexity was already reinforced across time windows
Persistence was extended, not fragile
The structure was ridge-qualified, not transitional
The distinction matters. One view waits for acceleration; the other explains why acceleration can occur without destabilization.
